Compound risks and adaptation solutions

We consider compound risks rather than risks as we consider both floods and droughts, and evaluate risks for the currently prevailing conditions, as well as for those in future. Combining the outcomes of the hazard, exposure and vulnerability leads to the risk of floods and droughts. However, our assessments will include various, often interacting, risks. This is far more complex than assessments of risk from a single event. Also, managing both floods and droughts is complex due to the interactions and interdependencies of measures to reduce the risks of floods and droughts individually. A well know example in flood and drought management are reservoirs for temporarily water storage.  For flood mitigation they should be empty at the start of the flood season, for the purpose of drought management they should be full at the start of the dry season. If a flood would occur during the dry season and the reservoirs are filled up, as happened in July 2021, management may even increase the consequences of the flood.

In response to the severe floods and droughts over the last few years, a wide range of possible measures and strategies have been proposed in the different countries to cope with these events.  What, when and how proposed measures will be realized will vary between the countries. Not in the least because different perspectives exist on what type of strategies are the most appropriate. Yet, no extensive research has been undertaken about the river basin wide consequences of different measures and strategies, how these perform under opposing (dry-wet) extreme conditions as well as what (transboundary) performance and consequences on the longer term can be expected.

Within this theme we will focus on 2 research topics:

1. Stress testing and assessing effective measures to reduce the hazard
2. Effective measures to reduce the exposure and vulnerability (consequences)